Uganda’s ambitious Tenfold Growth Strategy, which aims to expand the economy to $500 billion within the next 15 years, is facing early questions over implementation as a review of the FY 2024/25 budget reveals a mismatch between national priorities and actual fiscal allocations.
The strategy, anchored on the ATMS framework—Agro-Industrialisation, Tourism, Mineral-based development (including oil, gas and petrochemicals), and Science, Technology and Innovation—identifies these sectors as the primary engines of long-term economic transformation.
According to the strategy’s own modelling, agriculture and services offer some of the highest economic multiplier effects, estimated at 2.55 and 2.61 respectively, meaning investments in these sectors generate significantly higher returns for the economy.
However, despite their strategic importance, the review indicates that funding for ATMS sectors remains relatively limited within the revised budget for FY 2024/25.
Instead, a larger share of public resources continues to be directed toward what are classified as enabling sectors, including infrastructure, security, human capital development, and law and order.
While these areas are considered essential for economic stability, the assessment warns that they are not direct drivers of export-led growth.
The report describes this pattern as a fiscal imbalance, noting that government is heavily investing in the “foundations” of development while underfunding the productive sectors those foundations are meant to support.
In response to concerns over the mismatch, the Accounting Officer pointed to the introduction of the ATMS Accelerator Actions Tracker, a new monitoring tool intended to align budget allocations more closely with strategic development priorities.
Government has also maintained that the current fiscal cycle has prioritised foundational investments, arguing that stronger emphasis on ATMS sectors will be reflected in the FY 2026/27 budget, which is expected to shift more resources toward high-impact growth areas.
Officials argue that this phased approach is intended to ensure long-term sustainability, with investments in enabling infrastructure expected to unlock greater returns in the outer years of the strategy.
However, analysts caution that continued underfunding of core productive sectors could slow momentum in the early stages of the Tenfold Growth agenda, potentially delaying the desired economic transformation trajectory.
The Auditor General has advised the Permanent Secretary and Secretary to the Treasury to ensure that programme budgeting is fully aligned with the Tenfold Growth roadmap, warning that public spending must be directed toward sectors with the highest economic impact if Uganda is to achieve its long-term growth ambitions.
